看过一篇讲uncertainty和risk的文章，转述如下： Risk management can make an important contribution to effective project management. However, there is some justification for the view that current RM processes are threat orientated and that this limits the contribution that RM can make to improving project performance. Comprehensive treatment of project uncertainty requires an approach which amounts to modifying and augmenting current project RM processes. One simple, but effective modification involves replacing the word 'risk' with 'uncertainty' in RM guidelines, including use of the phrase Project Uncertainty Management instead of Project Risk Management. An uncertainty management perspective draws attention to the need to understand variability in organisational activities that have an input into a number of projects. Developing this understanding need not be associated with UM for any one particular project and could therefore take place independently of any project management activity. This is a weakness in current RM processes which are not readily focused on sources of variability, particularly ones which apply to many projects. Similar arguments apply to the identification and management of assumed operating conditions underlying estimates. A UM perspective needs to address some aspects of project related uncertainty outside of particular project contexts, as part of managing the project infrastructure, taking a programme or corporate view. Finally, a UM approach should facilitate integration with project management earlier in the PLC than a threat orientated RM process. The need to explore and understand uncertainty (and avoid a largely pessimistic threat orientated perspective), is greatest in the earliest stages of the PLC, during conception when uncertainty is at its greatest. An uncertainty management perspective more naturally focuses attention on this stage of the project than threat orientated RM. Thus comprehensive project UM can operate as an important extension of conventional project development, with the potential to influence project design and base plans on a routine basis, occasionally influencing very basic issues like the nature of project stakeholders and their objectives.
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Re:为提升本分坛的学术品味，强烈建议就基本理论问题作深入探讨。
[回复于 2004/2/11]
